SEV3 — ElevatedCLOSEDWeatherUnverified20d ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning — Baraga, MI; Houghton, MI; Keweenaw, MI; Marquette, MI
A cluster of weather events spans several regions: a red storm warning on Poland's central coast, an orange heat warning in Sardegna (already under open incident), severe thunderstorms in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, extreme heat in South Korea, Typhoon Bavi evacuations in China, and fatal flooding in Bangladesh. None of the affected locations host known contact-center or knowledge-worker operations relevant to WFM Labs' monitored footprint. The Sardegna signal duplicates an existing open incident.
Impact Summary
A cluster of weather events spans several regions: a red storm warning on Poland's central coast, an orange heat warning in Sardegna (already under open incident), severe thunderstorms in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, extreme heat in South Korea, Typhoon Bavi evacuations in China, and fatal flooding in Bangladesh. None of the affected locations host known contact-center or knowledge-worker operations relevant to WFM Labs' monitored footprint. The Sardegna signal duplicates an existing open incident.
Domain
Weather
Region
Central Coastal Zone, Central Coastal Zone
Opened By
watchkeeper
Jul 12, 2026, 03:31 PM UTC
Validated By
auto
Jul 12, 2026, 03:31 PM UTC
Event Cluster
4 events
OVIX Score
10.0
Closed
watchkeeper-auto(resolved)
Jul 14, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC
Timeline5
⚠
Incident openedby watchkeeperJul 12, 2026, 03:31 PM UTC
Declared from 3 signals. OVIX 10. News 3. BPO 0. Acute severe-weather floor (agents-028): authoritative short-fuse warning, declared at SEV3 regardless of resolved BPO footprint.
✓
Severity validatedby autoJul 12, 2026, 03:31 PM UTC
Auto-validated: SEV3 per policy.
✎
Note addedby watchkeeperJul 12, 2026, 03:31 PM UTC
External corroboration: uncorroborated (2 sources via Exa). ohiostatewide.com, youtube.com
✎
Note addedby watchkeeperJul 12, 2026, 04:00 PM UTC
Merged new cluster (3 signals, OVIX 10) — same domain, active <24h.
✖
Incident closedby watchkeeperJul 14, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC
Auto-closed: no new material events within 36h for this incident.
Evidence / Why this?
Traced to source — read-onlyUpdated Jul 12, 03:31 PM UTCWhy declareddeclareHybrid
Incident declaration (deterministic floor + LLM relevance gate + geo-exposure floor)v2
DECLARE when deterministicFloor AND (llm.declare OR acuteWeatherFloor OR geoExposureFloor) AND NOT aggregateTitle, and no open same-domain incident merges it. deterministicFloor = maxSeverity>=8 AND (newsScore>=1 OR bpoScore>=1 OR acuteWeatherFloor). acuteWeatherFloor = maxSeverity>=9 AND any signal is an acute severe-weather WARNING (tornado/severe-thunderstorm/flash-flood) — overrides the LLM footprint-based suppression. geoExposureFloor (agents-034) = domain in {geopolitical, financial, labor, supply_chain, travel, infrastructure, seismic, disaster, environmental, health} AND maxSeverity>=8 AND bpoScore>=3 (density_class high/very_high — a major member hub). Anchored to member exposure (geo_density), it overrides the LLM footprint suppression so any of the ten previously-blind domains can declare when genuinely material; corroboration (2+ signals OR domain news) is guaranteed by the worthAnalyzing gate. Weather + cyber are excluded (their tuned paths are unchanged). aggregateTitle (grab-bag "Multiple/Several/Various…") is refused (agents-019 §D). Asset-class deny (military/war-zone, WFM-37) suppresses earlier. cyberFloor disabled (agents-009 hotfix).
domain
weather
regions
["Central Coastal Zone","Sardegna","Baraga, MI; Houghton, MI; Keweenaw, MI; Marquette, MI"]
bpo score
0
news score
3
llm declare
no
max severity
10
signal count
3
llm rationale
declare:false — operations footprint is explicitly marked as minimal/none across all affected regions, the Sardegna signal duplicates an open incident, and remaining signals carry no staffing or service-delivery exposure for monitored contact-center or knowledge-worker sites.
aggregate title
no
high confidence
yes
geo exposure floor
no
acute weather floor
yes
deterministic floor
yes
model claude-sonnet-4-6 · prompt watchkeeper-declare-2026-06
Why SEV3SEV3score 3Deterministic
Incident severity level (SEV1–SEV4) at declarationv1
Base: SEV2 if sev>=9 AND news>=2 AND bpo>=1; else SEV3 if sev>=8 AND (news>=1 OR bpo>=1); else SEV4. Acute severe-weather (agents-028): if sev>=9 floor to SEV3 (SEV2→SEV3); minor/transient watches+advisories drop SEV2/SEV3→SEV4. Single-event cap: any SEV2 caps to SEV3 absent sustained multi-day BPO-region corroboration (SEV2 promotion is human-gated via revalidation). score = numeric SEV (1=most severe … 4); SEV3/SEV4 auto-validate, SEV1/SEV2 require human validation.
domain
weather
bpo score
0
news score
3
persistent
no
max severity
10
auto validated
yes
acute weather floor
yes
Geo Provenance
Tierprecise
Sourcesignal_coords
DeterministicSourcesUnverified
[Central Coastal Zone] weather 10.0 — Red Storm warning for Poland - Central coastal zonesentinel
[Sardegna] weather 8.0 — Orange High-temperature Warning for Italy - Sardegnasentinel
[Baraga, MI; Houghton, MI; Keweenaw, MI; Marquette, MI] weather 8.0 — Severe Thunderstorm Warningsentinel
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for parts of Michigan as additional storms expected Tuesday - Ohio Statewide↗ohiostatewide.comMichigan Severe Weather Coverage June 29th, 2026 Part 3↗youtube.comRelated Signals6
[Sardegna] weather 8.0 — Orange High-temperature Warning for Italy - Sardegnasentinel19d ago[Central Coastal Zone] weather 8.0 — Orange Gale warning for Poland - Central coastal zonesentinel19d ago[Central Coastal Zone] weather 10.0 — Red Storm warning for Poland - Central coastal zonesentinel20d ago[Baraga, MI; Houghton, MI; Keweenaw, MI; Marquette, MI] weather 8.0 — Severe Thunderstorm Warningsentinel20d ago[Sardegna] weather 8.0 — Orange High-temperature Warning for Italy - Sardegnasentinel20d ago[Central Coastal Zone] weather 10.0 — Red Storm warning for Poland - Central coastal zonesentinel20d ago
External Corroboration
UnverifiedChecked Jul 12, 2026, 03:31 PM UTCAffected Regions
Baraga, MI; Houghton, MI; Keweenaw, MI; Marquette, MICentral Coastal ZoneSardegna