'There have always been wildfires here, but never like this.'

Declared from 1 signals. OVIX 8.5. News 3. BPO 2. Geo-exposure floor (agents-034): declared on major member exposure (density high/very_high) past the LLM footprint gate. Flagged persistent (ongoing situation).

Auto-validated: SEV3 per policy.

External corroboration: corroborated (5 sources via Exa). nytimes.com, thelocal.com, elpais.com, nationalobserver.com, heraldomadrid.es

agents-043 VALUE>COST model (ALERTING-PHILOSOPHY.md — Horvitz VALUE>COST, Simon attention, EEMUA discipline). The declare gate is TWO gates, ORed — declare iff Gate A OR Gate B (composed with the existing floors + suppressors). ANTI-SILENCE FIX (gate G1): worthAnalyzing now admits ANY cluster at maxSeverity>=GEO_FLOOR_MIN_SEV (8) OR any Gate-B travel disruption, in addition to the prior (>=2 signals | news>=1 | systemic-travel | wide-AQ-footprint). The old singleton filter dropped every lone sev>=8 signal (70+/day) before Gate A saw it — from 2026-07-18 18:30 only 2-signal cyber roundups reached the gate and nothing declared. Gate A (workforce footprint = geoExposureFloor, generalized from agents-034): VALUE = event magnitude × workforce-footprint density (geo_density). See the geoExposureFloor clause below. Gate B (travel disruption, agents-043): a footprint-INDEPENDENT arm of travelSystemicFloor — see travelSystemicFloor below. DECLARE when deterministicFloor AND (llm.declare OR acuteWeatherFloor OR geoExposureFloor OR travelSystemicFloor OR enviroAirQualityFloor) AND NOT aggregateTitle AND NOT footprintZero AND NOT cyberDeny, and no open same-domain incident merges it (see incident_dedup v1). footprintZero (Gate 1, agents-036) = cluster is geo-scoped (any real region) AND bpoScore=0 (resolved exposure negligible/unmatched) — suppresses declaration INCLUDING via acuteWeatherFloor; the event becomes a brief; logged stage=relevance decision=suppress with the exposure inputs. No national-significance escape hatch (revisit with data). agents-043: a Gate-B travel-disruption declaration is EXEMPT from footprintZero (travel relevance, not local CC density — an airline IT outage/airport ground-stop at a low-density airport must still declare). cyberDeny (Gate 2, agents-036, domain=cyber only) = isNonCcCyberAsset OR isNonSpecificCyberHeadline over the cluster signal titles (the same asset-class check the Impact Engine gates at 0.15x) — hard deny, logged stage=relevance decision=deny. Additionally a cyber declaration at SEV2 requires active-exploitation/CX-nexus evidence matching /actively exploited|exploited in the wild|under active exploitation|known exploited|kev|ransomware|breach(ed|es)|outage/i in the CLUSTER’S OWN signal titles+messages (never domain-wide news context, never LLM output), else it caps at a brief. Replaces the disabled agents-009 cyberFloor (dead code removed). Geo honesty (agents-036): location_* comes from the declaring event’s own region (top-severity signal), never from a different max-exposure member; cyber declarations set location_* null (exposure cities live in affected_regions only). deterministicFloor = (maxSeverity>=8 AND (newsScore>=1 OR bpoScore>=1 OR acuteWeatherFloor)) OR travelSystemicFloor OR enviroAirQualityFloor OR enviroAirQualitySustainedFloor. acuteWeatherFloor = maxSeverity>=9 AND any signal is an acute severe-weather WARNING (tornado/severe-thunderstorm/flash-flood) — overrides the LLM footprint-based suppression but NOT the footprint gate. geoExposureFloor = GATE A (agents-043 workforceFootprintReason, generalizing agents-034): VALUE = magnitude × footprint. Eligible domain in {geopolitical, financial, labor, supply_chain, travel, infrastructure, seismic, disaster, environmental, health} (cyber excluded), OR weather ONLY via the major-storm arm (MAJOR_STORM_CUE hurricane/typhoon/cyclone — the EU-heat suppression is untouched). Declares when bpoScore>=GEO_FLOOR_MIN_BPO (2 — a REAL moderate+ hub; lowered from agents-034 bpo>=3 to stop missing moderate hubs) AND maxSeverity>=GEO_FLOOR_MIN_SEV (8). bpo=0 (no footprint) NEVER declares — a magnitude-9 quake in an unpopulated region is not an incident. Implies footprintZero=false. Severity by workforceFootprintSeverity (incident_severity v5), NOT mapSevLevel: sev>=9 × bpo>=3 → SEV1 (Manila-class), sev>=9 × bpo==2 → SEV2, sev>=8 × bpo>=2 → SEV3. agents-046 (G1 UNDER-DECLARE FIX — ALERTING-PHILOSOPHY.md G1): the TROPICAL-SYSTEM active-threat arm lowers Gate A's floor to MAJOR_STORM_MIN_SEV (7) when a cluster matches MAJOR_STORM_CUE (named tropical system) AND carries a STORM_ACTIVE_THREAT_CUE (watch/warning/approaching/landfall/storm-surge/evacuation) AND bpo>=GEO_FLOOR_MIN_BPO (2). A tracked, in-progress tropical storm bearing on a member coastline (sev 7–7.5, below the sev-8 bar hurricanes reach) is a legitimate 0–72h contact-center risk and MUST declare (it was silently missed by 0.5 sev). THIS ARM ONLY drops to 7; every other Gate A path keeps sev>=8, and a tropical system with NO active-threat cue (a distant mid-ocean advisory) also keeps 8. worthAnalyzing admits it (majorStormFloorEligible) even below the sev-8 anti-silence bar. reason=tropical-storm:sev7xbpoN; maps to SEV3 (workforceFootprintSeverity tropicalActiveThreat, incident_severity v5). NOTE (data follow-up, not this rule): disaster-feed tropical systems geo-tagged "Global" resolve to bpo=0 and are still suppressed — an api geo-quality task. travelDisruption = GATE B (agents-043 travelDisruptionReason, an arm of travelSystemicFloor): the MORE-SENSITIVE, footprint-INDEPENDENT travel bar (travel is the strategic showcase). domain=travel AND maxSeverity>=TRAVEL_SYSTEMIC_MIN_SEV (6) AND (a named travel operator/system with a disruption cue via travelSystemKey — airline/ATC/GDS/rail — OR an aviation ground_stop/airspace/it_outage hazard with aviation context TRAVEL_AVIATION_CONTEXT). Declares REGARDLESS of local CC-hub density (bypasses footprintZero). Declares SEV3 (isSystemicTravel mapping). Composes WITH (does not replace) the agents-039 aggregate hub/system arms. travelSystemicFloor (agents-039 Gate 5, domain=travel only; travel clusters pull at sev>=6 instead of 8) = maxSeverity>=6 AND (HUB arm: >=3 distinct underlying events (eventKey identity) in one (travel, geoKey) cluster AND bpoScore>=3; OR SYSTEM arm: the cluster names a travel operator/system entity (airline/ATC/GDS/rail — travelSystemKey, disruption-cue required) carrying >=5 distinct events across >=2 geo cluster keys this cycle AND bpoScore>=2). Member-relevance mandatory on both arms (implies footprintZero=false); overrides the LLM footprint suppression like the other floors; scattered unrelated low-sev travel news fails every arm. Sibling clusters of one systemic operator event merge via the travel-system entity key (incident_dedup v3), not as clones. enviroAirQualityFloor (agents-040 Gate 6 + agents-041 windowed footprint, domain=environmental only; environmental air-quality/smoke clusters pull at sev>=6 instead of 8, scoped to an air-quality title pre-filter) = FOOTPRINT arm: this CURRENT-cycle cluster carries an air-quality/smoke hazard signal (enviroHazardOf — air quality/AQI/smoke/haze/ozone advisory, EXCLUDING political/diplomatic/opinion framing per ENVIRO_AQ_POLITICAL_DENY — "blasts"/"threatens tariffs"/"slams"/lawsuit/sanctions etc. are not hazard readings and cast no vote nor declare) at sev>=6 AND >=3 distinct cities/metros carry such a hazard at sev>=6 over the last 18h (agents-041 ENVIRO_AQ_WINDOW_H — a cumulative hazard fans across HOURS not one ~60-min cycle; tallyEnviroAirQualityWindow over the signals table, the resolved geoKey is the vote unit so re-emission within a city and macro-region collapse cannot inflate breadth, distinct cities like Chicago/Cleveland/Detroit each count) AND bpoScore>=2 (a member-relevant hub). Member-relevance mandatory (smoke over unpopulated areas never declares); a single-city AQI alert (1 city, incl. one city re-emitting over the window) never declares; low-sev environmental noise sits below the sev floor. Overrides the LLM footprint suppression like the other floors. Sibling clusters of one smoke wave merge via the air-quality EPISODE key (incident_dedup v3), not as clones — a wider window refreshes ONE incident per (smoke family, macro-region), never dailies. The sev>=8 geoExposureFloor (single-city) is untouched. enviroAirQualitySustainedFloor (agents-042 Gate 6b, domain=environmental only) = the SUSTAINED-footprint arm, ORed onto the agents-041 fresh-cluster arm (not a replacement): >=ENVIRO_AQ_MIN_CITIES (3) distinct MEMBER-HUB cities (bpo>=ENVIRO_AQ_MIN_BPO=2) carry a genuine air-quality/smoke hazard (enviroHazardOf non-null — political/opinion framing still denied, casts no vote) at sev>=ENVIRO_AQ_MIN_SEV (6) over the last 18h window (tallyEnviroAirQualityMemberHubs), EVEN WITH NO fresh current-cycle declaring cluster. This surfaces a waning/ongoing multi-day smoke episode that arrives in WAVES (genuine member-hub readings hours apart) as an incident — the exact 07-17/18 live failure where the freshest genuine member-hub reading was ~7.5h old and only political noise arrived fresh, so the fresh-cluster arm never fired and ZERO incidents declared despite a real 3-city footprint. The difference vs the fresh-cluster arm: there is NO declaring cluster, so member-relevance is carried by the FOOTPRINT — the city count is restricted to bpo-qualified member hubs (3 non-hub cities, e.g. Indonesia-only, cannot declare; 3+ real member hubs can). The incident is DETERMINISTICALLY anchored to the WINDOW (title/severity/regions from the member-hub AQ signals + max severity, anchorSustainedEnviroIncident), not a single fresh signal. It EPISODE-merges into the same air_quality/smoke incident (incident_dedup v3) so consecutive cycles never spawn a duplicate — a sustained-cycle merge refreshes ONLY on genuinely-new member-hub material event keys (agents-010 Fault B), so the SEV3 36h quiet-close + max-age backstop retire the incident once the footprint decays below K (no explicit decay-close required). Logged with a DISTINCT reason string smoke-sustained-footprint:Ncities (vs the fresh arm smoke-footprint:Ncities). aggregateTitle (grab-bag "Multiple/Several/Various…") is refused (agents-019 §D). Asset-class deny (military/war-zone, WFM-37) suppresses earlier.

agents-043 (v4): a Gate A workforce-footprint declaration (geoExposureFloor) is scored on VALUE = magnitude × footprint via workforceFootprintSeverity, NOT the base mapSevLevel: catastrophic (sev>=9) × MAJOR hub (bpo>=3) → SEV1 (the Manila 7.0-quake worked example — this deliberately supersedes the single-event cap per ALERTING-PHILOSOPHY.md / Ted's criteria); sev>=9 × moderate hub (bpo==2) → SEV2; sev>=8 × bpo>=2 → SEV3. SEV1/SEV2 remain human-gated at declaration (validation pending). Every other path keeps the base mapSevLevel below unchanged. agents-046 (v5): the named-tropical-system active-threat arm (workforceFootprintSeverity tropicalActiveThreat, sev 7–7.99 × bpo>=2) → SEV3 — a tracked storm approaching a footprint coast is a genuine 0–72h disruption a WFM leader pre-positions for (same SEV3 honesty as the acute-severe-weather floor). The flag is a no-op for sev>=8 (those hit the higher branches), so hurricanes are unaffected. Base: SEV2 if sev>=9 AND news>=2 AND bpo>=1; else SEV3 if sev>=8 AND (news>=1 OR bpo>=1); else SEV4. Acute severe-weather (agents-028): if sev>=9 floor to SEV3 (SEV2→SEV3); minor/transient watches+advisories drop SEV2/SEV3→SEV4. Single-event cap: any SEV2 caps to SEV3 absent sustained multi-day BPO-region corroboration (SEV2 promotion is human-gated via revalidation). Systemic-travel floor (agents-039): a travelSystemicFloor declaration (multi-signal aggregate on member-relevant geography, sev 6-7 by design) floors SEV4→SEV3 — a region-level operational disruption, same honesty argument as the acute-weather SEV3 floor. It never raises anything to SEV2: SEV2 keeps its base intensity+news+human gating. Environmental air-quality floor (agents-040): an enviroAirQualityFloor declaration (multi-city cumulative air-quality/smoke aggregate on member-relevant geography, sev 6-7 by design) likewise floors SEV4→SEV3, and never raises anything to SEV2. score = numeric SEV (1=most severe … 4); SEV3/SEV4 auto-validate, SEV1/SEV2 require human validation.